Is the Osborne effect still in effect?

February 6, 2006

Osborne Computer Logo
As the Osborne effect almost took Osborne, Computer Corp. to bankrupcty, Apple is scared that the Osborne effect will haunt them as well. Analysts predicted an Osborne effect for Apple after the announcement of Intel processors inside Macs back at WWDC 2005, that people would stop buying PowerPC Macs to wait for Intel Macs. But now as Adobe plans to not release a Universal Binary for CS2 and people are reluctant to first generations, the Osborne effect could continue.

Adobe has been slowly moving away from the Mac platform for years, and this is a great example of that. Adobe is not going to be making a Universal Binary for their Adobe CS2 software, more wait for the next release of the Adobe Bundle, possibly CS3, and make that a Universal Binary, instead. What does this mean? Well, it is basically going to pause the purchase of Intel Macs from people who need Adobe Photoshop or Illustrator for their work. You can probably also include some big Macromedia applications, such as Flash and Dreamweaver, since Adobe bought Macromedia a couple months back.

I have heard many say that they “don’t want to be the first in line to buy an Intel Mac”. I have mixed feelings about acquiring a new Macbook Pro, but a part of me really wants to get one. Two weeks back, I talked with an Apple Store employee, and he said that he would never want to be the first in line, and that he’s most likely to wait for rev. b. I have debated with myself, and I think that I will be buying a Macbook Pro when they start shipping. I thought that if I kept waiting, I would never get anything, and I trust Apple that they have tested the Intel Macs to fix bugs, and I think that Apple could fix any problems if they do occur.

The Osborne effect was originally created because analysts thought that consumers would stop buying Macs, and would wait for the Intel Macs to come out, but now I think that some consumers will continue to wait for rev. b, and some will wait for pro applications to become Universal, and will not buy Intel Macs until then.

One Response

  1. Craig says:

    With some of the non-Apple pro apps like CS2 staying PowerPC for now, and games coming out for Intel, I don’t think Apple will have any issues. The pro users will likely stay on PowerPC until they can upgrade and home users will likely make the upgrade.

    Personally, I’ll stay with PowerPC until the PowerMacs come out for Intel (also depending on the speed diffs between those and the iMacs)

    February 6th, 2006 at 10:45 pm

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